Commerce Media’s Greatest Impact Will Be Incrementality

In the early days of retail media, the prospect of advertising close to the point of sale was the initial draw. Reaching a consumer in purchase mode was obviously valuable to brands and advertisers and brought about exciting results compared to other marketing channels.

Today, retail media and commerce media more broadly have a value offer that’s more exciting and impactful than anyone could have imagined five years ago. And with the help of agentic and generative AI, that value is finally being realized in astounding ways.

You’re now seeing commerce media’s product-purchase data being used more broadly in marketing efforts. Not only is it improving the general performance of commerce media marketing, but it’s giving marketers unprecedented levels of incrementality, changing the way we measure all marketing efforts and proving what actually drives new sales versus what merely shifts existing demand.

But here’s where it gets interesting: incrementality measurement goes far beyond traditional ROAS calculations. While ROAS tells you the total revenue attributed to ads, incremental ROAS (iROAS) reveals the sales that genuinely wouldn’t have occurred without your advertising. It’s the true marker of growth, especially when it comes to acquiring new-to-brand customers.

The distinction is crucial. When someone searches for your brand’s ketchup and clicks your sponsored ad before buying, traditional attribution credits the ad. But incrementality asks the harder question: would they have bought it anyway? This shift from correlation to causation is transforming how smart marketers allocate their budgets.

In our recent Retail Media LinkedIn live, Jivox EVP of Customer Innovation and Marketing, Anna Luo, led a discussion with two leaders in the commerce media space, along with Jivox’s own Jamie Villacarlos, Chief Growth Officer. The following is an enlightening discussion on commerce media, highlighting the value of its incrementality boost and quick rise.

“Retail media’s compound annual growth rate is outpacing both search and social media, more than doubling in some projections. It’s clear that retail media is no longer just an experiment—it’s a major force in marketing.” — Anna Luo.

The Irresistible Speed And Efficiency Of Commerce Media

What’s clear already is that the power of commerce media is undeniable. Direct-to-consumer (DTC) brands are rarely just selling through their own domains anymore. No one wants to miss out on the value of retail media and how it impacts their brand.

“There has been a very steady and noticeable decline in true DTC-only sellers. Very few brands are out there that you can only purchase on their own website. Most brands are expanding to at least one, if not multiple, retail environment, most notably Amazon but also Target, Walmart, etc.” – Chantelle Williams

A big factor explaining this shift is how retail media has made the path to purchase so quick. Sales are happening much faster than they used to in other words.

“We’ve noticed the pace of purchase is accelerating. Consumers are making buying decisions faster, and that’s largely thanks to the immediacy of first-party data and ad placements that happen almost in real time through retail media.” – Chantelle Williams

This immediacy has made retargeting less essential, as consumers are making purchases much earlier in the customer journey. They don’t need the reminder after being exposed to an ad. The targeting is better. The consumers are more likely to be in buying mode. Another point to note here is that this speed creates cleaner incrementality testing conditions. When the gap between exposure and conversion shrinks, measuring true causal impact becomes more precise.

Agentic And Generative AI Are Key To Commerce Media’s Efficient Customer Journey

“Using AI to connect audience targeting with personalized creative helps brands boost measurable sales and ROI. It ensures you’re not just reaching people, but reaching the right people with the right message.” – Jamie Villacarlos

By now we all know how AI is helping in a variety of ways in commerce media but its impact on measuring incrementality is particularly helpful. Generative AI, for example, is helping fill in some of the creative needs that come with personalization. Brands can now match context signals, such as weather, with creative by using Gen AI backgrounds. But here’s where AI really shines: machine learning algorithms are now changing how we create and manage control groups for incrementality testing.

Campaigns can be optimized with AI-based suggestions, increasing targeting precision and speeding up the path to purchase. AI can also be used to flag issues with a campaign before it produces poor results.

“We’re using agentic AI to monitor and flag potential campaign issues, like creative fatigue or oversaturated audiences, before they become problems. That early detection is where AI is showing the most promise today.” – Chantelle Williams

Is AI Ready To Drive Retail Media Campaigns?

“Our research shows that speed and volume alone don’t drive engagement. Gen Z and other consumers crave authenticity. So brands using generative AI need to prioritize meaningful, value-based content—not just more content.” – Mithila Guha

More isn’t always better. When trying to encourage better engagement metrics on social media, brands need to use a more thoughtful approach than they can get with simply using generative AI ad nauseam. They also need to be wary of inspiring backlash with AI use. Consumers are wary of the kind of worker replacement that generative AI is associated with.

How Should Businesses Approach Agentic AI With Their Campaigns?

Currently, marketers need to be cautious with their use of AI, especially when generating public-facing content.

How Commerce Media And Incrementality Are Transforming Marketing

“What sets retail media apart from search or social is that it’s powered by actual purchase data. Keyword searches and social likes show intent, but only retail media gives us the first-party insights into what people are actually buying—and buying again.” – Anna Luo

Commerce media gives marketers access to product-purchase data for the first time. It allows them to get close to closing the loop, connecting marketing efforts to a sale. And while it hasn’t instantly created a perfect system of attribution and measurability, we’re already seeing remarkable findings come from this first-party data access.

“Retail data is becoming a new form of currency. As retailers realize its value, they’re starting to make it more accessible—even to brands that don’t sell directly on their platforms. That’s a turning point.” – Chantelle Williams

Commerce media is rapidly spreading off-site. Product-purchase data is proving incredibly valuable everywhere it’s used, boosting incrementality across every marketing channel.

It’s also making incrementality possible in other surprising places, like social engagement metrics. Brands can now assess engagement and track how they encourage actions lower down the funnel.

Incrementality vs Attribution: Are they the same thing?

Here’s where many marketers get tripped up: incrementality and attribution are not the same thing.

Consider this scenario.

A loyal customer searches for your brand’s soda, sees your sponsored ad, clicks it, and purchases. Attribution credits the ad with the sale. But incrementality reveals the uncomfortable truth: they probably would have bought it anyway. Your ad spend just cannibalized organic sales without driving true growth.

“Brands also need to look at how engagement patterns are forming and whether they’re shaping conversion opportunities throughout the funnel. Brands that are connecting these dots between immediate sales and the broader effect of engagement will ultimately make better decisions and drive real incremental growth, not just short-term wins.” –  Mithila Guha

According to Mithila, positive and negative social engagements have a big impact further down the marketing funnel than you might assume.

“Consumers today are incredibly polarized, and that’s impacting brand loyalty and buying behavior in real time. Their values now play a stronger role in what they buy and which brands they support.” –  Mithila Guha

With access to product-purchase data and a suite of better reporting tools from Social platforms, these kinds of findings are now possible. Brands just need to put in the effort to connect the dots. With that effort, you get a much more complete picture of the customer journey and the real impact of every marketing effort: incrementality.

Challenges With First-Party Data Still An Issue

As exciting as the prospect of incrementality is, bottlenecks that threaten access persist. First-party data is governed by privacy laws that ad tech needs to abide by. As a result, targeting and measurement can be complex and fragmented.

Attribution Complexity And Data Fragmentation

“The biggest challenge we see today is still around activating first-party data outside of retail networks. Clean room compliance and disparate data structures make cross-platform usage difficult, especially for smaller brands.” – Chantelle Williams

The Technology And Methodology Challenge

Each retailer has its own set of requirements, too. You can find them in the legalese you skip over when you give consent to use their platforms.

“Retailers each have their own compliance requirements and access models for their data. It makes using retail media data a complex, often fragmented process for brands that aren’t endemic sellers.” – Chantelle Williams

The situation makes ad-tech partners critical for full participation in commerce media. Without these partners, the complexity would be too overwhelming for anyone but the largest brands.

“Because accessing this data is so difficult directly, we’re increasingly relying on DSPs like The Trade Desk and Criteo. They help simplify how we reach high-intent shoppers, especially when we’re working across multiple retail platforms.” – Chantelle Williams

Commerce Media And AI Are Essential Components Of A Modern Growth Strategy

Incrementality is the future of marketing. To understand the true impact of marketing efforts is to wield a level of control that was but a dream even ten years ago. We’re still in the early days of commerce media’s impact on measurability, but its rich data combined with smart AI use cases, will transform how marketing is done.

“Retail media is moving from test-and-learn to being a core growth strategy. With better data access and proven ROI, it’s becoming essential for DTC and CPG brands that want sustained success.” – Chantelle Williams

As retail media explodes and measurement tools get sharper, incrementality will separate the growth leaders from the budget burners.

The real question: Will you be setting the pace or playing catch-up?